Guide Nr. 3 - Trading Football at Betfair

Today i will cover some important stuff you need to know if you want to begin trading football with Betfair.

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Odds movements in Betfair football markets are governed by 2 factors :

• Time passing in the game

• and goals being scored.

As time passes, and goals are scored, the Betfair football markets anticipate the finishing score. The odds adjust in all markets accordingly. If the odds didn't adjust in an organised and predictable manner, Bots (Robot staking software) would step in and make guaranteed winnings. Betfair football markets are extremely efficient due to the volume of software that is monitoring the markets looking for the slightest of edges.

Also the volume of general trading often into millions of pounds in some games, snaps up any value odds that may be offered in any market. Any variation from the expected odds offers a trading edge to any software that is programmed to these very efficient markets, so if odds are offered that are not in step with time passed in the game and goals scored, bots will step in and bet or lay the market to where it should be.
You may have your own opinions, but in my opinion Betfair football markets offer virtually no edge whatsoever, simply because of the volume of trading that takes place in these very popular markets. The only way forward to make a profit from Betfair football markets is to gamble on goals being scored, or time passing in the game.
There is no other way of trading these markets. Whether you use a strategy, or simply bet and lay odds movements, the success or failure of your trades will be totally dependant on just 2 elements - Time and Goals.

The beauty of football betting on Betfair, apart from the obvious advantage of being able to lay bets, is that there are so many more markets to bet on than traditional bookmakers. This is particularly true of live TV matches, where you can find any bet you could possibly want such as asian handicap, corners odds, half-time/full-time, next goalscorer, over/under 2.5 goals, and so on. Also, if you enjoy in-play betting you have more flexibility with Betfair because you can bet right up until the final whistle, unlike the mainstream bookies who usually suspend betting with about ten minutes to go.

Trading the odds before a match starts

When I first started out on Betfair, my only goal was to build my bank up gradually, with the minimum of risk. By studying the odds available on Betfair and comparing them with the bookmakers' odds, I quickly spotted some excellent profit opportunities. A very useful site for odds comparisons is oddschecker. This site compares odds from many bookmakers, as well as Betfair, and displays them on a single screen. It also tells you where the odds are shortening or lengthening, and with which bookmaker.

You will immediately see that Betfair's prices are a lot more generous than the traditional bookmakers (but we knew this anyway). The key to profiting from this tool is to find matches where the odds on Betfair differ significantly from the average of all the bookmakers' prices. For example if you think that Betfair's odds are slightly too high, you can back that selection and aim to lay it back at a lower price and guarantee yourself a risk-free profit when Betfair's price, as expected, moves in towards the average bookmakers' price. 

The best time to find potential trades is a few days before the match starts when the market is still fairly illiquid, and wait for the prices to correct themselves as the match draws close. You should always look to close out before the day of the match, as this is when the big money enters the market, which often results in price changes of both bookies and Betfair, and messes up the system. This method of trading is based on the assumption that the bookmakers prices will remain relatively stable in the days leading up to the match, which they do in the majority of matches.

You could in theory apply these methods to other sports as well (I used a similar method to trade horse racing), but I like the football because there's always a lot of money staked on them, therefore it's always easy to close out a position.

NOTE: Bear in mind that team news, injuries influences the odds so it is possible that odds will not shorten so be careful when making your choice.