Guide Nr. 4 - Beginners Betfair trading strategies

There are some strategies that can be easily applied by beginners in trading with Betfair. Today I will cover two of them that I find the easiest.

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      1.  Back the server

This is one of the easiest strategies out there for beginners. There are clearly some easy rules to follow to get success out of this.

We don't necessarily need a top server for this strategy. All we are looking for is a favorite with a starting price between 1.40 and 1.80.

If you wish you can check their serving stats at www.atpworldtour.com Click on Scores an Stats and then on Ricoh Match Facts. There you will find various league tables for things like most number of aces, most service games won, most break points saved etc.

After you have found a suitable game we can go and trade on it (DON’T FORGET ABOUT LIQUIDITY - the amount of money matched on Betfair's "Match Odds" market should be an absolute minimum of £50K and preferably a lot more). This strategy can be used with just the scoreboard but I find it better to also have pictures, so it wouldn’t be bad to have an account with Bet365 and also find a game that has a live feed out there. Make an account with betfair with the link below:

My first tip is to watch your guy for the first or second service game without entering the market. Some players tend to start slow and we have to avoid the losses we might encounter because of this situation.

The right moment to enter a game is at the highest available price. So place your bet even when you see that our guy is about to lose the receiving game. The reason we do it as soon as the previous game has finished is that there are other traders who back the server and they will push the price down a tick or 2. We want the best price available so get in early.

So having backed the server we watch how the game goes. If the server goes 1 point behind we trade out for the small loss. We only get back into the game if the server draws level. If the server gets level we back him again. Hopefully he will win the next point and we can let the trade run. If the receiver gets the point for 15-30 then we trade out for a further small loss. Once the server has been behind twice in a game we leave that game alone. In the majority of games the server will not go behind more than once and we will come away with a profit. If it is a close game then we may not make more than 2 or 3 ticks profit but the important thing is to control losses.

I would avoid backing both players on serve given that this is intended as a beginner’s strategy. The strategy can be used on any surface.

Important TIP: Don’t use it on women tennis. They tend to make this strategy a losing one. They can easily lose a game from 40-15 or even 40-0.

Important TIP Nr2: If the server’s price drops below 1.3 I recommend you don’t use the strategy anymore. The potential gain will be very small on each game to worth the risk.

This strategy will protect the trader against the large losses that can be suffered by a lack of discipline and allowing a "Back the Server" trade to run even when the server is struggling. If the server isn't playing well there will be times when you have a small loss but you always have the option if, for example, the underdog breaks serve to switch to backing that player on their service games.

I recommend you use this strategy only for the first set because for the beginners the second or a deciding set could get a little bit difficult to predict.

       2. Break point strategy

It can be used by novice traders because I give you the exact entry point for the trade and the exact exit point. The risk on your bank is small with this strategy. I would advise using the ladder interface on your trading application as you can enter trades with one click. You can also see the hedge figure in the ladder interfaces.

You are looking for one of 2 scores: 15-40 or 0-40 (i.e. 2 or 3 break points) 15-40 is my favorite and also occurs more often. It offers a better price to enter the market.

If the receiving player has got himself to 40 there is a very good chance he will win one of the next 2 points. Once you see one of the qualifying scores you back the receiver (or lay the server). Green up when the break point is won.

Your greened up profit should be approximately 5% of stake used although this varies depending on what stage in the match you are at. (NOTE: this is for an entry score of 15-40. If you enter at 0-40 you will get a profit of 2 or 3 ticks). If the server pulls back to 40-40, trade out for a small loss (again, about 5% or smaller).

During an average match you will get anywhere from 2 to 4 opportunities. Obviously more in 5 setters.

TIP: DO NOT be tempted to gamble on 30-40. You will lose more often than you win. If the set has gone to a tie break wait until one player is 2 mini breaks up (i.e. has won 2 points against the serve) then back that player.

This method works best on clay court matches or on any women’s match. Women really tend to do this almost in every game.

NOTE:

• There are certain circumstances which can be avoided as the potential downside of the server coming back to 40-40 makes the risk higher. If the winner of the first set has 2 break points against them in the second set, be wary of entering the market. If the server comes back to 40-40 the loss could be greater than normal.
• An unsuccessful trade in a deciding set can leave us with a larger loss. Avoid using the method in deciding sets!
• Avoid using this method when the server has a big serve. They are more likely to be able to pull out a couple of aces to get back to 40-40.
• Ideally you need the favourite's price  to be 1.40 or higher.
• This method can be used on ATP(mens) matches on clay but as stated above avoid situations where the server has a big consistent serve.