ATP - Monte Carlo Masters Preview

It’s hard to believe that three months of 2011 are already behind us, and spring, along with the clay-court season are ready to take over the ATP World Tour.

Beginning on Sunday in the lavish casino and yacht driven locale known as Monte Carlo, the top dogs on Tour win begin their preparations toward Roland Garros. While the hottest player of the year—Novak Djokovic—has opted to take the week off in order to rest his knee and his mind after a resounding start to the season, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and David Ferrer have all committed to playing the optional 1000 point Masters tournament.

With Nadal aiming for his seventh-straight title in the Principality, the likes of Verdasco and Murray will be hoping that their luck will change with the clay under their wings.

It will also be interesting to monitor the progression of Nicolas Almagro. Reaching three straight clay finals during the Latin swing in February, Almagro has proven year-in and year-out that his game can flourish at the 250 and 500 level on dirt, but not necessarily at the Masters platform. While Almagro can give anyone outside the top 10 a handfull to deal with on clay, he’s had his share of difficulties with Nadal and Ferrer in recent matches.

Gael “la monf” Monfils will be making his first appearance on Tour since San Jose, and with the withdrawals of Djokovic and Soderling, Monfils received a top eight seeding and a first-round bye. Putting aside the Frenchman’s constant injury woes, he has been playing great ball in recent times, and clay has always been his favorite surface.

Canadian power-hitter Milos Raonic will arrive at his first career clay-court tournament as the No. 35 ranked player in the world. Soaring up the rankings this year, Raonic will begin five straight weeks of clay action in Monaco. While Raonic may not have the experience of sliding and adjusting to the nuances of the dirt, his deadly serve and cannon forehand will be dangerous to deal with.

Let’s now take a look at the top and bottom halves of the 56-man field in Monaco.

Top Half:

Since the beginning of time—or the last six years—Rafa Nadal has picked up the winners check at the Monte Carlo Country Club. Defeating none other Guillermo Coria, Federer (three times), Djokovic and Verdasco for his titles, Nadal enters this year’s edition of the event following two straight finals losses. Depending on how you look at Nadal’s recent defeats at the hands of Djokovic, he didn’t manage to breakthrough the Serb’s confidence, but he did gain points at both Indian Wells and Miami.

Dealt a generous draw, Nadal will face Jarkko Nieminen or a qualifier in his first match, before a possible third-round tussle with good friend Gasquet. The Frenchman has been rebounding his form this year, but I’m not convinced that he’s ready to take Nadal out on clay.

Other seeded names in this half will include Murray, Berdych, Monfils, Tsonga, Youzhny and Simon. But with that being said, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Thomaz Bellucci and Santiago Giraldo could advance to the quarterfinals. Both Bellucci and Giraldo have been touted as great dirt players, and both youngsters have proven that they can play on the red brick.

Murray’s recent demise has been vividly documented, while Tsonga and Simon have never posted their best results on clay. Monfils is just returning from injury, and Berdych is by any definition of the word “a toss up pick” on clay-courts.

All in all, I’ll take Nadal, Monaco, Bellucci and Giraldo to make the quarters here, with Nadal blizting into his seventh-straight final.

Bottom Half:

This half will feature a few players with a lot on the line. Spaniard Fernando Verdasco advanced to the finals last year before being taken to the woodshed by Nadal. Verdasco has been anything but consistent since last year’s clay season, and with 600 points to defend, he could see his top 10 ranking fade quickly.

Federer also enters Monaco in good but suspect form. He’s seen nothing but semifinal and finals appearances since Wimbledon, but the Swiss hasn’t been able to defeat Nadal or Djokovic at a Slam or Masters tournament in 2011. Federer’s outlook on clay will be worth noting, and I’d be willing to suggest that if he’s not ready to get down and dirty he could see his Monaco campaign and spring season end on a sour note.

Federer will open against Kohlschreiber or Golubev—not a gimme by any means—with Cilic or Starace waiting in the third-round.

Almagro owns a 13-1 record on clay this year, and he should be favored against Melzer if they meet in the third-round.

Verdasco could be upended by countryman Robredo in the second-round, while Ferrer, Dolgopolov and Troicki round out the seeded players in this half.

Dolgopolov can certainly play on clay, and a third-round contest with Ferrer would be something to see. However, Ferrer did win in Acapulco in February, and his determination on clay has always been hard to deny. Raonic will face Llorda in an-anything-but-clay-match in the opening round, but I’m not quite sure that the Canuck or Frenchman have what it takes to reach the round of 16.

However, Raonic and Llodra play with enough point-ending control that they can never be taken lightly.

It’s hard to pick against Federer reaching the semifinals or finals—only because he owns such an commanding head-to-head lead over Ferrer, Almagro and Verdasco—but something tells me that the Swiss will once again fall short of his execution in the latter rounds.

The first major clay event of the year could bring forth many surprises, but as it stands now I’ll go with Federer, Almagro, Ferrer and Robredo to reach the quarterfinals.

Could we see Federer and Nadal meet in back-to-back tournaments for the first time since 2008? Something has always gone wrong for the most part since that epic Wimbledon final, and with Nadal’s track record in Monaco being spotless since 2005, it could be Federer leaving the event sooner than he would have liked.