ATP - Barcelona Saturday Preview

David Ferrer vs Nicolas Almagro

Who knew a Croat Ivan Dodig would be the spoiler at the 2011 Barcelona Open? Spoiling an all-Spaniard semifinals, Dodig draws the No. 1 player in the world Rafael Nadal. In the other semifinal (4) David Ferrer knocked off (6) Jurgen Melzer of Austria to set up an all-Spain semifinal with Spaniard (8) Nicolas Almagro who diverted the upset against fellow countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero. Both matches were business as usual 6-3, 6-3.

Not business as usual was the playing. Mother Nature delayed matters, but at the end three Spaniards walked through unscathed. It would have been four had Feliciano Lopez won the unseeded battle with Dodig, but he fell 4-6, 6-4, 4-6. In all the Spanish semifinal, Ferrer and Almagro meet for seventh time. It's 6-love Ferrer all-time with only one clash occuring at a major and one total mismatch in 2007 in Sweden 6-1, 6-2. At the 2006 United States Open Almagro played valiantly but fell in straights dropping the first two sets in two tiebreakers before giving in 6-1 in the third set.

In the Spaniards' four other meetings, five of the 12 sets went to a tiebreak. Almagro's won four sets, none easier than 6-4. Meanwhile Ferrer has won one bagel, won 6-1 twice and beaten Almagro three times 6-2. So time will tell whether we see another tiebreak or another casual set from the underdog.

Ferrer's been on fire the last two weeks. The only man to supply the fire extinguisher has been Nadal. Because Almagro is 0-6, it's hard to see him breaking through, especially when Almagro has had his plate full of tough matches through the first few matches this week in Barcelona. Ferrer has lost an average of five games a set this week. While I see him losing more games tomorrow, Almagro has been involved already in two tiebreakers here this year. Ferrer is 6-1 in head-to-head tiebreaks and the elder Spaniard has had far easier sets against the younger, spry Almagro who will try reining in his first win against the 29-year-old.

Rafael Nadal vs Ivan Dodig

I wonder if world-number-one Rafael Nadal ever gets bored when playing on clay. When his scorelines read 6-1 6-1, 6-3 6-1 and 6-2 6-2, how could he not? The Spaniard is steamrolling toward a sixth career Barcelona Open Banco Sabadell title, and will look to give the home crowd another victory to cheer for as he faces Ivan Dodig, the big-serving Croat, in the semifinals. He did not face a break point in his quarterfinal encounter with the seven-seed, Gael Monfils, who is working his way back to the grind of competitive tennis after sitting out a couple months with a left wrist injury. La Monf amazingly had a first serve percentage of 84, compared to Rafa’s 57, but was unable to capitalize as the Spaniard’s return game was just as effective. Nadal’s clay court prowess will be on full display Saturday as he fights for a berth in the final. His opponent, the 56th-ranked Dodig, is playing in his first career clay court tournament on the ATP World Tour. Considering he has upset third-seeded Robin Soderling, the 15-seed Milos Raonic and Spaniard Feliciano Lopez, it has been quite the clay court debut. The Croat’s powerful serve is his biggest weapon and he will need to harness the 18 combined aces he struck against Soderling and Raonic to have a fighter’s chance against Nadal. Dodig captured his first career title at the Zagreb Indoors event in Croatia earlier this year, and is enjoying his best season to date.

When Rafa plays someone soooo out of his league it’s always fun to compare their completely disproportioned career stats. For instance, Nadal has won almost 39 million dollars in career prize money where Dodig has barely eclipsed the $500,000 mark. Also, the top-ranked Spaniard has won 44 career titles, including a total of 496 matches. Compare that to the Croat’s lone title in his home country this year and only 21 total matches won during his career, and you see how this encounter will be a mismatch from the start. For good measure let’s also throw in the fact that the five-time Barcelona Open champ (2005-’09) is 28-1 at the event and hasn’t lost on clay since 2009. By a show of hands, who thinks Dodig has a chance?

Not finding much (or any) value in taking Rafa straight-up? You’re not alone.

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